What Certainty Really Looks Like in the First Days of a Casualty
In casualty response, certainty is a word we all use all the time, without apology. From experience, it’s worth saying this upfront: certainty is never absolute and there will always be some uncertainty. What we aim to do is, reduce that uncertainty; to make things clearer, bit by bit, so decisions are better informed as the response develops. That process doesn’t neatly fit into a 24-hour window.
The Reality of the “First 24 Hours”
There’s a lot of talk about the first 24 hours of a casualty. In practice, that period is usually spent mobilising to site, piecing together information and working out what we don’t yet know. In these stages, the team is also thinking ahead about how this might develop.
The phase that really matters is the first few days. That’s when the picture starts to form, priorities become clearer and the direction of the response begins to take shape. Get that wrong, and it tends to show later.
PEAR Isn’t a Slogan; It’s How Things Actually Work
Every response I’ve been involved in follows the same basic order, whether it’s written down or not:
People. Environment. Assets. Reputation.
That’s not theory, it’s an established framework for managing responses. The safety of people always comes first, followed by protection of the environment. The third priority is minimising losses to property (assets). If the first three are protected, then reputations should take care of themselves.
How Certainty Actually Improves
Early assessments are rarely perfect. They’re built from what’s available at the time: with ‘boots on deck’, observing, listening, feeling, establishing key information with the crew, reviewing drawings and applying experience to what you see in front of you.
Digital tools are increasingly part of that early picture. This starts immediately, with our casualty team using open-source intelligence techniques to gather date, interrogate it and develop our Casualty Preliminary Assessment Report (CASPAR). On first arrival, with the CASPAR in hand (or on the phone!) photos, drone and ROV footage are often the quickest way to give everyone the same view of the casualty. They may not give you all the answers at this stage, but they are instrumental in providing clarity and moving on from assumptions to something more tangible.
More detailed digital surveys and scanning tend to come later, once the kit is mobilised and it’s clear they’re needed. That progression matters. Trying to do everything at once rarely helps.
The data sources used in those first days are updated regularly and combined with situation reports to keep parties up to date and provide actionable intelligence as the situation develops.
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions!
Time gets talked about as a currency in casualty response, and that is generally true. Like any currency, it can be spent wisely or poorly. In my experience, it’s less about speed alone and more about timing and taking positive action. Decisions will be needed and our role is to provide guidance and insight on the path to take, accompanied by the intelligence needed to support those decisions. The adage of no decision being a decision itself is key to casualty response – a positive decision made at the right time is better than delaying unnecessarily, even if the outcome is less than perfect. A delayed decision invariably results in a loss of control of the situation.
Supporting those decisions with the right expertise at the right time is critical. Our naval architects, structural engineers, pollution specialists, civil engineers, fire experts, or specific cargo specialists may be required. Their inputs, modelling and advice are layered with one’s own expertise and digital data to create the overall picture, dynamically framing the situation and supporting early judgement calls.
A Conduit for Communication
Early coordination between owners, insurers, authorities and technical advisers makes a real difference. Most things that go well in a casualty response stem from clear communication. When everyone is aligned early on, uncertainty reduces faster and decisions tend to stick. When they’re not, even relatively straightforward cases can drift. Clear communication of a plan and how it may change (chances are it will!) are critical to manage expectations and ensure all stakeholders understand.
What the First Days Really Set Up
The first days of a casualty response don’t deliver certainty themselves; they deliver better understanding. They set the tone and the technical framework for everything that follows, from the initial emergency response through to the desired result to protect the safety of people, the environment and minimise losses. From our point of view, that’s where the real value sits, by improving the quality of information so that decisions made are evidence based, proportionate and timely. That, for me, is what certainty really looks like.
